"My largest investment by far is Ethereum, and it’s down about 80% from its all time high, so you can imagine what that’s done to my net worth."
I'm... baffled. Been reading your blog for years and think you're a smart guy otherwise, but investing any non-discretionary money in crypto is very stupid. It's basically a lottery.
It's your money and you can do with it what you want, but yeah really wouldn't recommend it.
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Well, if I'm down 80% and don't mind, it's probably discretionary by definition, right?
I know what I'm doing. I understand crypto at a deep level, I understand risk and EV at a very deep level, and I'm really comfortable with my position.
While it is high variance and relatively risky, to call investing in Ethereum a lottery is ignorant. You're either offering an opinion on something that you don't know about, or you are completely disregarding the work of many extraordinarily talented computer scientists.