I love you but no longer trust your financial advice.
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Dave
Could be related to your "negative cash" article in 2021-07, where you said it's "it's now against one’s interest to hold cash", and talked about taking margin loans against stocks and putting the money in investments that yield 8% with "no risk".
https://tynan.com/negative/
I wouldn't be loving this bear market if I followed that advice.
Tynan
Why don't you think that's good advice? Interest rates have gone up, so I'm now paying ~2.5%/yr, but I still make the 8%, and as I mentioned in the post I left a big enough buffer that market downturns don't cause any sort of margin call / liquidation.
Dave
Because cash has been one of the performing positions in the year since you wrote it. Generally, if you took margin loans and invested them in risk assets, you got destroyed.
Regardless of whatever this investment is that's paying you 8%, your characterization of "almost no risk" for such investments is borderline irresponsible.
Tynan
Sure... that's technically true, but "keep your money in cash" is historically a really bad strategy. My portfolio is down 9.82% vs 11.32% S&P, and of course I also made 6% on around 50% of that (almost no risk 8% vs ~2% interest), so that brings it to -6.82% vs 11.32% S&P. Really not sure what the beef is.
Pretty sure everything is up that I've ever specifically suggested people buy (bitcoin a long time ago, eth a long time ago, all weather portfolio). Anyway... time will tell.