Interesting analysis, although I don't think it fairly takes into account what the real situation would be for someone deciding between high school and college. I would guess the vast majority of people don't just have $90,000+ lying around to use for college. They would have to take out the money in (probably government subsidized) loans (or work while they're in college, although it makes the calculations easier if you assume it's all loan money), so you'd have to account for paying back the loans. Similarly, for the "high school dropout" case they also wouldn't have an equivalent $90K+ sitting around to invest in the stock market. I'm not sure really sure how to handle that case though since you can't just borrow money to invest in the stock market. Although your analysis is enlightening, I just don't think it corresponds to the real situation most people would be in. I'm open to ideas though for how to take that into account. :)