Over the past few days there was a “mistake fare” going on with some European airlines which enabled you to book amazing US -> Europe -> Asia multiple stop tickets for $130-400. Friends and I booked three different trips, because deals this good come along about once a year.
The deal was a little bit complex. Some city pairs didn’t work, and it was difficult to guess which ones did. Going from LAX to Budapest was really cheap, but going LAX to Paris wasn’t. To try to figure out the itineraries, we spent a bunch of time combing through the forum thread about the deal.
A small portion of the posters were super sharp and found all sorts of city pairs that I couldn’t find. The bulk were neutral, just posting their itineraries or asking reasonable questions. But there was a contingent who were scared to pull the trigger on one of the best flight deals they’d ever find.
What if they cancel all of these flights? What if I change my mind? How will I get between the intermediate countries (most itineraries had a small intra-europe segment you had to cover yourself)? Will this fit into my schedule then?
In situations like this one, it’s really important to actually think about what the downside is. Booking a trip that will take you three quarters of the way around the globe seems like a big deal, especially when you’re going to exotic places like Jordan, Egypt, and the Czech Republic. And there is some uncertainty, too; maybe the flights will be canceled within a day or two.
I seem to find myself in a lot of situations where the stakes seem high, but aren’t. Buying the island seemed like a huge deal to a lot of people I told about it, but in the end it was financially similar to buying a really cheap beater car, except that it’s much less likely to depreciate. Booking these tickets was the same way; it seemed like a big deal on one level, but actually wasn’t.
If they cancel all of the flights, then you’ve lost nothing. Uncertainty can be uncomfortable, but it’s not that big of a deal. If they cancel half of them, you still have some options.
If you change your mind within twenty-four hours, you can get a full refund. That means that even if you’re a little bit interested in the trip, you may as well book it and marinate for a day. If you change it later you’re out some money, but very very little. A few hundred bucks for a potentially amazing trip.
It seems a little bit daunting to figure out how to get from Jordan to Cairo, but a quick search shows some very cheap flights as well as some awesome overland options. Best of all, you don’t have to figure that out until you know the fares will be honored.
And if the flights don’t fit into future plans, oh well. You took a bet with really good odds and it didn’t pay off. Or maybe you can take the first chunk of the flight but not the second, to make it work with your plans.
I see people pass up opportunities all the time because of fear and uncertainty. Back when I was making hundreds of thousands of dollars gambling, I showed a dozen or so friends how to do it. Only one or two really did it to any degree, and none of them really did it big. These are really smart, capable people. If they had just thought rationally about the downside, I’m convinced most would have done it. Probably most of them would now, as it’s easier to be scared and confused when you’re a freshman in college than when you’re an adult.
So the next time a decision crosses your path that seems too crazy or risky, think about whether it really is or not. Don’t go with your gut, go with your mind. We’ve evolved these brains for a reason. Sometimes things really will be too risky, but very often they’ll be amazing opportunities disguised as risky propositions.
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Surprise! The photo is again of the salt flats in Atacama.
A bunch of people asked about the flight deal in the last post. The best source to find these things is the FlyerTalk miles and points forum. The deal is long gone now, though.
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