alternate link: http://www.useriscontent.com/media/SXSW06.INT.20060311.DanielGilbert.mp3

thanks for the alternate link...been looking for this mp3 from Dan Gilbert and I got the 404 on 3 different websites before finding this post.

mp3 404'd? Will I never know the joy of EV?

Expected value is a term from probability theory and statistics... you should have not dropped out of school!

The "time" question is interesting because the ODDS part of the equation doesn't come into play. Both choices are 100% odds.

So the thing that differntiates them is the dollar amount and the time. I think "time" would fall under value and can be subjective, just as the value of chosing a watermelon or an orange could come down to an individuals taste preference. But, like the speaker said, the context is everything. If you're literally starving, you'd put taste considerations aside and surely take the larger watermelon for the higher calorie count. Or if you were offered the choice while walking on the street, you may like watermelon slightly better but have no interest in lugging it around so you chose the orange.

The first thing that occured to me is that the "Happiness Expected" from a given situation is nearly useless because it does not take one really important thing into consideration: time.

For example: would I rather have $5 right now or $100 in one-hundred years? According to the equation from the lecture, (HapExpt = OdInFavr * Value$) it is suggested that $100 over 100 years is a better deal. But obviously, it is not, because I probably won't be around to collect the money in a hundred years.

So I suggest we amend the equation to: HapExpt = [(OdInFavr * Value$) / Time (days)]; the total projected happiness being the total profit derived from a given situation divided by how long it took us to accomplish.

Henceforth, this new unit to measure happiness (odds * $)/(time) shall be called the "Mazer", in honor of me, because I invented it. I expect it to be added to school curriculums nationwide by 2021.

The mp3 is 49 minutes long, but it's like sitting in one of those rare classes that are so fascinating you're sad to see it end.

The happiness equation is interesting, but it may incomplete as presented. You are told to compare the "probability of winning" against "how much enjoyment you will receive". But where exactly does the "consequences of failure" come into play? Something may be very easy to obtain, and be extremely enjoyable, but the consequences of failure could be extremely UNenjoyable. Take speeding in a car for example. Easy to do, you most likely won't crash the first 100 times you do it, and extremely thrilling and satisfying, but the consequences of failure is serious injury or death. How do you decide? Discuss.

. The happiness equation takes into account the probability of

Ty speaks briefly about risk, but really, risk is part of the equation too.

I really enjoyed this MP3.

Fucking brilliant mp3. The calculations can get a little messy though when the odds and payoffs are not as easily obvious.