Really engaging speech Tynan.

For what it's worth; the two big distinctions in this were:
"An opportunity exists where our perception doesn't match reality." and "Judge the process + execution - not the results"

-Pete

p.s. You owe me $3.

did you always use martingale or did you use something like the d'alembert progression

martingales kind of intense

Hey, Tynan. I enjoyed the video. I am curious about something: have you read "blink" by Malcolm Gladwell? It's a book primarily about instinct, subconscious thought and snap decisions (hence the title). I mention it because of how vehemently you decry the gut in your video.

Gladwell's point, as I take it, is not to contradict this (he looks at things fairly by examining specific cases of the gut being wrong, as well as being right), and he posits a proper understanding of how one's mind works to understand what decisions are best left to intuition, and what decisions are too complex or out of one's experience, and need to have logic applied to them.

Because your speech focuses on the latter type of decision, I don't think Gladwell contradicts you. Anyway: it is a book well worth reading, as are his other books ("Outliers" is the other particularly interesting one of the collection).

Great post man. It's similar to 'job security' being a contradiction, and the most secure thing you can do is to become an entrepreneur.

Fantastic speech. I would love to hear your insights and how you prepared for giving it.

btw, I've realize that we are very much alike, yet, very different people. We just use and believe the same process'. Incidentally, I have always strongly taught that our GUT is always always right. That feeling is your internal compass telling you where to go, which few listen to and act on.

I reluctantly watched this, thinking I already knew a lot about risk and thinking logically. However, this was AMAZING!!! Really helped me see some stuff I didn't see before. Your points about making a habit out of risks, always doing the scarier option, and how hard decisions aren't really hard really struck a cord.

http://www.boingboing.net/2010/01/31/san-franciscos-secre.html
i thought you might like this map of some sf places.
you should also try to meet starchild, visit city lights bookstore,and have lunch with my brother.
alison at the libertarian party of indiana is looking for a speaker - she doesn't know yet that you are the speaker she should get. thanks for sample chapters of your books.

Loved this video... loved the idea of asking 4 questions for each risk.

Awesome talk man! Really enjoyed it.

As a poker player who plays for Real Money online, all of this is spot-on advice (EV+ decisions, the coinflip exercise, etc)

Hope to see you speak more, you lead a truly remarkable life sir!