I just got back from Peoria, AZ, where I gave a speech about risk from the perspective of a former professional gambler. The takeaways are:
Enjoy, and let me know if you'd like to hire me to speak at your sweet event:
Really engaging speech Tynan.
For what it's worth; the two big distinctions in this were:
"An opportunity exists where our perception doesn't match reality." and "Judge the process + execution - not the results"
p.s. You owe me $3.
did you always use martingale or did you use something like the d'alembert progression
martingales kind of intense
Hey, Tynan. I enjoyed the video. I am curious about something: have you read "blink" by Malcolm Gladwell? It's a book primarily about instinct, subconscious thought and snap decisions (hence the title). I mention it because of how vehemently you decry the gut in your video.
Gladwell's point, as I take it, is not to contradict this (he looks at things fairly by examining specific cases of the gut being wrong, as well as being right), and he posits a proper understanding of how one's mind works to understand what decisions are best left to intuition, and what decisions are too complex or out of one's experience, and need to have logic applied to them.
Because your speech focuses on the latter type of decision, I don't think Gladwell contradicts you. Anyway: it is a book well worth reading, as are his other books ("Outliers" is the other particularly interesting one of the collection).
Great post man. It's similar to 'job security' being a contradiction, and the most secure thing you can do is to become an entrepreneur.
Fantastic speech. I would love to hear your insights and how you prepared for giving it.
btw, I've realize that we are very much alike, yet, very different people. We just use and believe the same process'. Incidentally, I have always strongly taught that our GUT is always always right. That feeling is your internal compass telling you where to go, which few listen to and act on.
I reluctantly watched this, thinking I already knew a lot about risk and thinking logically. However, this was AMAZING!!! Really helped me see some stuff I didn't see before. Your points about making a habit out of risks, always doing the scarier option, and how hard decisions aren't really hard really struck a cord.
i thought you might like this map of some sf places.
you should also try to meet starchild, visit city lights bookstore,and have lunch with my brother.
alison at the libertarian party of indiana is looking for a speaker - she doesn't know yet that you are the speaker she should get. thanks for sample chapters of your books.
A couple people recently have asked about the risks I take. On one hand, as they point out, I play it extremely safe by eating healthy foods and abstaining from alcohol and drugs. On the other hand, I climb construction cranes and go skydiving. Isn't this a contradiction?
It isn't - at least in my "eccentric" way of thinking. The difference is that one type of risk is an incidental risk, and the other is a sustained risk. I'm not really concerned with how dangerous a particular activity is. I know that jumping onto a moving freight train is more dangerous than eating a cookie. I'm worried on the "expected value" of the event. In other words, the average harm per hour times the amount of hours I'll be doing the activity.
If I climb a radio tower, there's a very small chance that I'll kill myself doing so. I don't mind taking that risk, though, because I'm only going to spend a total of ten hours or so doing it in my entire life. The odds probably won't catch up with me.
The speaker, Mr. Bilahari Kausikan, makes references to economics several times in his speech: when he talks about the unpredictability of life's events and what life may throw upon us, he is echoing Keynes' very ideas about capitalism and chance. There is simply no way we can quantify the odds of cataclysmic occurrences and the probability of a scientific discovery or breakthrough happening in the world. No risk management model and no amount of statistical analysis or modelling can ever predict the future. Ironically, it is this false conviction that the future can be predicted or that risks can be managed effectively that ultimately causes calamities, whether natural or man-made, to befall on us.
Hope you will enjoy reading his speech as much as I did.