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hands Annie and I sat around the table talking about all the freaky things we have in common. We’re both vegan, don’t eat sugar or refined flour, don’t drink, aren’t religious, etc. We knew that the odds of finding someone with so many similarities was rare, but just how rare was it?

Similarity #84: we’re both a bit geeky. We opened up Excel and started looking up the statistics for as many of the quantifiable similarities as we could find. Vegans make up 1.4% of the US Population. A surprising 46% doesn’t drink. We added a few modifiers in, taking out half the population for being below average intelligence, and another 85% or so because, like anyone, we’re not attracted to most people we meet.

If I had guessed before doing the math, I would have thought that there would be at least a hundred thousand girls out there that fit my criteria. I was WAY off.

Depending on just how picky I decide to be, there are only 10-25 girls in the United states that match my criteria. That’s not a lot. Annie’s was a bit more, mainly because she has a wider age range than I do.

Worse, there are a lot of criteria I couldn’t quantify. What percentage of the US can cook? There are also criteria I haven’t even though of yet, as well as dozens of things that individually aren’t worth looking up the stats for. In other words, the number may very well be even lower than I calculated.

To be fair, this is far from an exact science. A lot of the variables interact with each other in ways that I haven’t accounted for. Vegans are probably less likely to smoke, maybe less likely to drink, but more likely to smoke pot. Religious people might not drink as much as atheists. A serious statistician would take these correlations into account, but I’m happy to estimate that they all cancel each other out.

Curious how many people are out there for you to choose from? I asked you last week for your input and I have made an interactive calculator using a lot of your suggestions. I didn’t incorporate all of them, and some of them were too objective, but I was still interested to read all of your responses.

To calculate how many of "The One" are out there for you, visit the Perfect-O-Meter.


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There are 30 Comments.

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 12:32 am

20,123 if I go with “healthy weight”

or

41,365 if I go with “overweight”

I don’t know how clearly defined each one is since I’m not familiar with BMI, but I figure if I cut out the upper 2/3 of the “overweights” I’m left with about…

27,133 people

Have yet to meet one that meets all the standards though.

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 12:34 am

Said my previous comment was approved but it isn’t showing up…

Anyways,

20,123 if I go with “healthy weight”

or

41,365 if I go with “overweight”

I don’t know how clearly defined each one is since I’m not familiar with BMI, but I figure if I cut out the upper 2/3 of the “overweights” I’m left with about…

27,133 people

Have yet to meet one that meets all the standards though.

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 4:52 am

real numbers proof that people who are too picky never get what they want?

Untill your someone who can meet and attract most anyone I would avoid thinking about the “perfect” situation because that wish will most likely distract you from your goals with women. I know I def fall into this category as well.

you cant go from 0 to suddenly being picky, youknow?

on a side note does anyone know what happened to emergencies blog?

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 5:52 am

Funny post, and not in a good way. Sorry man, but you can’t “define” the one just based on a few characteristics.

By your own judgement, you would have no interest in Annie if she started eating meat. Is that correct?

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 9:21 am

16 for me… and that’s with no salary or political preference.

Better start looking!

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 9:23 am

I bet of the 1.4% who are vegans most if not all are above average intelligence. Some of your criteria probably overlaps.


Tomas
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 9:37 am

While i do understand the immediate attraction that someone with so much in common may arouse, i truly believe that relationships are about complementing each other. Not mirroring each other.


arebelspy
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 10:02 am

Regardless of the various problems other commenters and yourself pointed out (such as overlapping criteria), this was a pretty sweet tool. Fun to mess around with, and very simple to use/aesthetically pleasing.

Well done Tynan.

Now update LN?


anonymous
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 10:23 am

You also realize, of course, that not only do your criteria likely correlate with one another, but that those correlations will become more important as the total number of matching people approaches zero. So there might be 100,000 people matching your “age” and “vegan” criteria, but as you specify more and more additional criteria, it becomes even more likely that those additional criteria are correlated with what you have already specified. Basically, the assumption of statistical independence becomes worse and worse as you invoke it more and more. So instead of 15-20 people matching all 10 criteria that you have applied independently, it might well be that all five of the last criteria were redundant.


Tynan
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 11:42 am

@Glen: If she started eating a standard American Diet, I would not be interested in the long term.

Short term my criteria are somewhat (but not much) looser.

@Glade/Anonymous: As I mentioned in the post, there are interactions I’m not taking into consideration. The calculator is for fun, to get a ballpark estimate, and to see how different factors affect your pool.

@Tomas: So pick someone who is the opposite of you. :)

Tynan


Brian
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 12:35 pm

The post has no scientific relevance, it’s just a means to measure the disqualifying factors of a potential mate. So by the ‘one’ is the person best suited without having to possibly lower your standards. “She’s super hot, but too bad she drinks”. That will simply cause conflict in the relationship. The one is the person with the least opposing viewpoints. It’s just the stats that makes things interesting

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 1:20 pm

tynan, there is a major flaw in this. if you remove all political party affiliations, there are ZERO matches…. boo

Jun 8th, 2009 @ 3:51 pm

I got about 3,000. Couldn’t remove all the political stuff or it became 0. It was fun but not scientific by any means. More just a marketing gimmick for your book ;)


Tynan
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 4:19 pm

Independent = people who don’t identify with either of the major parties. I will add clarification on the calculator.

Tynan


Luke
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 7:27 pm

Tynan,

Where did you get the percentage for non-drinkers from. That seems ridiculously high compared to what i’ve found in the field. In 28 years I’ve met three girls that don’t drink. Or rather, should I be asking what is the definition of a non-drinker?

Thanks


Tynan
Jun 8th, 2009 @ 7:37 pm

@Luke: The source I used for the calculator put non drinkers at 46%. I went through so many sources that I can’t find that one anymore, but here’s one that estimates it at 39% in 2006:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/alcohol.htm

My experience has been very similar to yours – I never meet anyone who doesn’t drink.

Tynan


Tomas
Jun 9th, 2009 @ 10:08 am

@Tynan: Ass :D.

I actually went ahead and did the test and got 602,935. Woohoo, im a slut!

And one other thing, is 35k a year like minimum wage? normal wage? cause at 3k a year im getting royally screwed. Im getting my green card ASAP.

Jun 9th, 2009 @ 11:43 am

i consider myself a “non-drinker”, however i will drink maybe once or twice a year for a special occasion. my mom is the same way and i have a few friends who rarely drink too. would you really consider us “drinkers” because we have a few drinks once or twice a year? i’m assuming the “non-drinkers” included in that 39-46% are like myself who don’t consider themselves drinkers but may partake on occasion.


Alyss
Jun 9th, 2009 @ 2:27 pm

I got 120, but if you then take into consideration sexuality…I’ve heard that between 3 and 10% of the population don’t identify as straight, so at best that gives me twelve people. =o

But I don’t live in the US, so I guess it’s not very relevant anyway! :D

Great work, Tynan – really interesting post. <3


Alyss
Jun 10th, 2009 @ 10:39 am

Ooh – and another thought. This doesn’t have anything about people that would actually be attracted to you – which surely makes the number even less.


Tynan
Jun 10th, 2009 @ 10:51 am

@Alyss: Good point.

Tynan


Dave H
Jul 21st, 2009 @ 11:23 pm

Fun but kind of pointless.. you don’t get to decide. Your gut decides.


Anon
Jul 25th, 2009 @ 5:13 pm

I think you’re missing a very important fact: Most of these traits are statistically dependent.

For example: There are probably significantly more healthy-weight vegans than obese vegans, but your calculator appears to think there are approximately as many of either.

There are probably also more Democratic pot-smokers than Republican pot-smokers, but your calculator claims equal numbers of each.


Dictamus
Sep 24th, 2009 @ 5:07 am

Tynan, what an interesting and thought provoking post. I have question relating to this. Have you revisited your views about “oneitis”? Beacause it really seems there might not be so many “right ones” as we may have thought.


John
Mar 8th, 2010 @ 11:51 am

Did you hear about the man who spent his whole life looking for the perfect woman…….. but when he found her……. she was looking for the perfect man!


2ManyHobbies
Sep 12th, 2010 @ 6:20 pm

Fun to think about it that way but….not realistic. Love is not a checklist. I’ve been with my husband since we met at 17 (which was 18 years ago :-) In 18 years we’ve grown together and apart over and over. Our views have changed, hobbies, interests, lifestyle. Basically though, our morals match up, we are attracted to each other, and we thoroughly enjoy doing anything together. THAT’s what counts. Oh, and we love your blog.

Aug 4th, 2011 @ 3:52 pm

15,205. But after adjusting for the population of my metropolitan area vs the rest of the US… the number dwindles to 136.9 people ‘nearby’… ouch! And I live in a decently populated area too.


Alexander
Sep 27th, 2011 @ 3:45 pm

Yup, just what I thought: I’m going to die alone.


Mia
Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:03 pm

842,554 people are “the one” for me. With such a large number I feel I should have met at least one of these people.

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