A parlay in craps is akin to 'letting it ride' or for the non gambling among us using your winnings and betting them back on the table. Sure you stand to lose it all on risky bets but life does not seem to link well with those who just play it safe. Life seems to be a continual slide down into what people term 'death' or oblivion or whatever in which only the ones who really make at least a push for the top enjoy a life well lived. What has been a constant personal troll of mine is getting into situations where my fear pushes me into actions which are a guaranteed slight loss instead of a possible medium loss and an incomprehenisble gain. If anyone has read many of my other posts I'm a big advocate of Pascal's Wager - making small bets which if lost are inconsequential in the short run but could pay off huge in the long run. As a craps player I was always kind of an iffy breakeven player until I discovered the power of the parlay. Sure I may lose 50-100$ sometimes 200$ a session but in the long run given my infrequent gambling (none now at this point) that money would not matter anyhow and I've had some big wins to show for it. 10$ --> 400-700$ twice maybe 10-->200 once and a 1-->280$ triple parlay on the any craps on the come out as my best burst. What if I made small bets in the past on every precious metal? On the stock markets? (which have continually grown) What if I applied momentum and parlayed instead of spend and/or sit?
Sooo..... I was taking a halfway conscious nap this afternoon and an odd thought came to my mind. What if instead of getting money/presents/whatever else people get for birthdays/christmas/giftgivings/housewarmings/etc... I ask for precious metals instead? Realistically I'd just request no gifts just modest cash donations for a 'special project' and turn them around into precious metals if the market price is good else deposit them into lending club certificates for the 5-15% interest. I'd then take this money around and reinvest it again! Once the money got big enough similar to pruning a tree I'd take a small bite off for my own personal happiness while knowing in the background I had a financial foundation which brought me peace.
It would be a slight change of pace from the norm. Instead of splurging on whatever I'd want to get with the usual consumerist mindset I'd invest all the money instead. This would require me to continually work on being happy with less which is a path I started on since I was 10 (it somehow hit my consciousness at that age that getting more stuff did not make me happier. In fact it made me sadder as I realized the number of sacrifices people were making to get me things). Anyway I left the boat of consumerism long ago and opted to save my money but in lieu of investing I just saved my money up waiting to make the big jump into starting my own business or whatever. I never got the 'chi' or whatever to make that jump years later unfortunately. With the economy still in shambles though saving fiat currency is a guaranteed loss (history also shows this) so every so often I thought about investing. I asked for advice from many about the markets and got mixed results which I shared in this older thread from John Wes linky. A few weeks ago I decided to disregard all the limiting beliefs regarding the markets people have drilled into me and jump into them myself linky2. I invested a modest 500$ into Tesla Motors on the recommendation of DrOdio linky3 and since then it's been steadily climbing upwards.
Looking back now I wonder how much more I'd have if instead of being a consumer or a saver (which is kind of a fear-based reversed pole of being a consumer [one addicted to material items]) I became an investor instead. Investing comes with risks as I found out with my stock based retirement account when it dropped 40% in value during the great 2008 crash. Despite these risks saving seems like a sub-optimal play based on fear and with a slow but guaranteed loss over time. That stock loss has eventually rebounded with the market. Anyone who's saved money in the bank from the 1920's will be dead broke today (unless you had actually currency or precious metal coins then you'd be well off :D ). I'd hate to turn this post into a total admonishment of fiat currency as the world holds US fiat in very high regard but one cannot deny the effect of inflation and the continual price rises that occur all around us. The chances of a SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario realistically happen in the US after I take my emotional thinking out of the picture seem slim to none tbh in my assessment. There are too many people concerned with politics/economy to have that happen in this country - for millions upon millions of people to just give it all up just like that. Imagine how much better our country would be if all that wasted energy both political sides use to bash each other day and night went into ACTION. If our economy did collapse one day from political infighting I believe we'd all try to make it work without currency instead of devolving into some post armageddon zombie movie.
So yeah going back to my original thought now that I'm fairly convinced the US will be here for a lot longer. What if I converted a good portion of all the gift cash I got thru the years into precious metal gold and silver? Unlike fiat these seem to hold and grow over time despite being VERY volatile due to them being actual goods. What if I put them into lending club and high yield investments? What if I even took 10% of that and put them in moonshooter startups and started attending financier conferences in the valley? I'm thinking I'd be just as happy as I am now but much richer to boot with little risk of failure.
I think of parlayed investment as a paradigm for life now. Using the golden goose to lay eggs or whatever they call it instead of slaying it for chicken tonight and nothing tomorrow. Most people think you need a ton of cash to make a living off investment but I have an odd gut feeling that may not be true for some reason. Instead of spending 100$ to buy something what if I just put it into a 10% investment and waited a year (working on my willpower and discipline). The next year I will have 10$ of interest and maybe moonshoot that money into precious metals. Orrrr just put that 100$ into precious metals and wait a few years. I've bought some ounces of PHYSICAL silver recently (despite the bubbled price) to ease myself into this new mindset along with the TSLA investment I mentioned earlier. I don't know maybe I'm being the over-idealist again but parlayed investment seems like the path to financial security once you really get momentum going.
I never really thought about investing till a couple years ago because I just didn't have money to invest. I opened up a retirement account when I got a job as a sort of long term tax shelter and put money in that. Admittedly since it's all mutual funds they aren't exactly moonshooters and my return has been along the lines of ~4% in 5 years. Despite that I wonder what would happen now if someone gave me a gift of 10 ounces of silver instead of 100$ a decade ago. I'd have 280$ now instead of having nothing given that 100$ long spent. The happiness that 100$ has brought me was transient and has been LONG gone. The happiness of having a constantly appreciating asset that survives inflation would not be so burstingly exciting back then but as time stretches the small joys of having financial backbone may add up to exceed whatever joy I had from spending 100$ just like that. What if I saved up all that gift money over the years and had 1000$ then invested while I was young into gold? I'd have a tree I could prune for money now. Mortgages and loans are the bank's way of applying this concept and we've all seen the astronomical fortunes they make now.
What if I converted a good portion of all the gift cash I got thru the years into precious metal gold and silver? Unlike fiat these seem to hold and grow over time despite being VERY volatile due to them being actual goods.
If you brought Gold in 1980 you would have to wait 26 years till you could sell Gold for the same price you brought it. Historically Gold isn't really a good store of value.
Yeah I saw the wikipedia chart on it and the corresponding article at http://host.madison.com/ct/news/opinion/column/article_68f99b80-4258-5f44-a817-5cc64c6e1884.html which describes how the price of gold has not kept up for that time period you described.
Looking at the wikipedia chart below though at the 'Price for 1 gram in 1971 dollars' it looks like it held it's value throughout time as long as you didn't buy during that bubble spike in the 1980s. Holding value throughout time is a concern of mine as that same amount of plain fiat currency from 1971 would be near worthless today if it were just kept as bank savings.
For kicks I entered in 10,000$ in the inflation calculator for 1971 to 2012 at this link. I got this as a result:
What cost $10000 in 1971 would cost $55918.39 in 2012.10k in savings in 1971 fiat currency will have deprecated by 80% if one went into a coma in 1971 with 10k in the bank and woke up in 2012! The same amount of gold would've held it's value. Even if you bought during the 1980 bubble the chart shows about an 80% loss at the absolute worst case if buying in 1980 and selling in 2001 which is just about the same as the fiat currency loss. The fiat loss is guaranteed though (unless we go thru a massive deflationary period which would destroy our economy as everyone would hoard cash thinking it'd get more valuable each passing day).
Few people hold serious amount of money in a non-interest bearing acount for long term investment. An investement in treasure bonds of 10k would be 150k in 2011 ( http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html ). Yes, you have to factor in inflation afterwards you have something like 55k.
Given the recent price hike in Gold price there a good chance that Gold is at the moment in a bouble like it was in 1980.
If you want to hold gold for the long term you are also making a bet that asteroid mining for Gold won't crash the Gold price. We drill for oil in the ocean but don't mine for minerals in the ocean. With better robots it could be profitable to start mining on the ocean floor.
Looks like the bubble may be popping? Gold and silver are down in the double digit %'s today maybe 10-20 though I'm not sure of the exact figure. Silver is down approx. 20% since when I bought a few weeks ago knowing it was on the bubble. (30 down to 24) as of 4/15 10am.
I agree precious metals have that same risk from new suppliers and innovations rendering them mute. Reminds me a lot of 'abiotic oil theory' which states that oil is continually regenerated thru chemical reactions in the earth's crust and isn't just a massive pile of dinosaurs that all died on top of one another in certain places. The more I think about it the more the fossil-->oil theory sounds ridiculous and a way to create artificial scarcity (since after all the common man can't easily drill their own oil for lols). Diamonds are another one of those 'artificially scarce or overinflated' commodities possibly.
I'll have to look into supposedly slow bond/treasury bill investments again. Real estate has been an interest of mind but the more I look into it the more I need to admit to myself that land around where I am is overpriced and I don't know much about anything outside my local area to really put an investment value on it.
Diamonds are another one of those 'artificially scarce or overinflated' commodities possibly.
Diamonds are effectively sold by a monopoly run by De Beers. Diamonds that aren't certified by them are seen as "confilct diamonds" and decent people are supposed to shun them. Everyone who buys noncertified diamonds is funding the slaughter of innocents, you know?
Reminds me a lot of 'abiotic oil theory' which states that oil is continually regenerated thru chemical reactions in the earth's crust and isn't just a massive pile of dinosaurs that all died on top of one another in certain places. The more I think about it the more the fossil-->oil theory sounds ridiculous and a way to create artificial scarcity
Even if dianosaurs aren't the cause, oil fields don't seem to be filling up again at a decent speed and we are now going after irresponsible sources such as tar sands.
bet you wish you bought some bitcoins eh?
bahaha yeah I did wish I got some back when it was at 11. I think the bubble might be coming to a pop though after reaching some unheard of 240$+ value in a day before crashing down to 150 then 180 and now as of writing back to 120$.
I have mixed feelings about bitcoin right now. For one thing there is no SEC or enforcement to stop people from pumping and dumping and manipulating the economy to do these wild spreads. Bitcoin is like a day trader's dream come true as in a short span of time the prices have danced so much people doing rapid buy/sells (if even possible) would rake it in. On the other hand no SEC means all of us get the chance to pump and dump and fraud now - not just the illuminati :p.
Also the bitcoin economy is still small enough for a few big fish to dominate the market however they see fit. Create a bubble - create excitement - then pop it while they keep all the proceeds. Sickening really. I read some link from the other investment article about how the average hold time for a stock in the US is 22 seconds now. No longer are we using the market as an investment tool - rather it is becoming a silly game show where everyone throws their wads of money into the center at the same time then rush into the middle trying to scoop up more than what they put in. Repeat ad nauseum 30 times a day and they call this a "career" ha.
Time to look up the food chain. As much as I hate dealing with money since it attracts crime and unsavory elements maybe the optimal move now is to start a bitcion exchange and collect the juicy commissions...
I had never gambled before and knew nothing about it, but I'd gotten too many e-mails like it. I was at my parents house for winter break during my first year at UT, and I was bored.
"Free $50 just for downloading our casino!"
Hmm. That doesn't seem very risky. I might as well download to see what it's all about.
My mind has been scrambled the last couple days. I don't know why, it came on very suddenly. I've made massive strides over the two weeks before - I accomplished about six months worth of work over two weeks. I felt on top of the world. I wasn't even very tired afterwards, I felt good, ready to go.
Then yesterday, just bzzt - nothing. Foggy, almost like confusion. Couldn't focus at all. Strange. I said, y'know what? I haven't had a day off in a while, I'm just going to take the day off. Went and sat at a cafe and listened to some audio for about four hours, walked around and saw the city, went and had a massage, and then sat and ate fruit. Spend like 10 hours in a row just thinking and relaxing, which is good, I don't take full days off very often. I had some good ideas when I was out at the cafe and took some extensive notes, so I got some production out of it too without even trying to.
Now, I wish I could say, "And then I was recharged, and today I was awesome!" But no, I woke up in a fog again. Damn this. I track my time and have some routines to keep me running well, but I was foggy despite it, unable to focus really. Suck, what is this?
I was working, but it was half-working. Now, half-working is a big problem in my opinion. Half-working tires you out as much or more than real full working, but you get about 5% as much stuff done. Yes, 5%. Good work requires something like focus. It doesn't necessarily require the highest levels of focus and flow (though that stuff is very good), but it requires working through the mentally difficult parts when they come up. The worst part about half-work is you cruise through the easy enough stuff, then stumble on a difficult part.
This is doubly bad, because when you come back to your work, you're staring the hardest part in the face. This sucks, you need to kind of regroup and double down to get re-started while staring a difficult or complex part of work in the face. But again, I was in that mental fog and so I start half-working on it, and then I wander off again. And I try to come back to the work, but then - bam, there's this hard problem staring me right in the face, that I already failed to conquer twice.